Thursday, July 28, 2005

How to Start Investing for Financial Independence - Part 3

How to Start Investing for Financial Independence Part 3;
Turning Semi-Pro

By Dr. Chris Anderson

This is the third article in a series of how to take a new investor, and turn their working capital from $15,000 to a nest egg of over $400,000 in six years. More importantly, we show how this same individual can use this to become financially independent, semi-pro investor taht derives the bulk of their future income from their investment portfolio.

In the first two articles (1) & (2), we showed how using only 3 simple, ordinary investments, the investor grew their capital base to over $192,000 after 4 years! How did they do that? Simple, they put their money in Harm's Way to have it start working for them rather than their banker. In addition, they employed the concept of leverage in a responsible, but aggressive manner.

In my dealings with people all around the country, I find that there is one major denominator for many in the 30-60 age bracket, they would love to find a safe way to leave their current source of icome and have time to pursue interests closer to their heart. They have little passion to continue in their current profession until their golden years where they hope that their savings, their 401K's, and their social security will be enough. Instead, I find that most people are interested in becoming what I call semi-pro investor where much of the person's income is now tied to their investing ability. However, I also find that for most people, investing is not their ultimate goal but just a tool to finance some dream they have had on the back burner for years.

In case you think this is all theory and the stuff od informercials, this is exactly what I did at the age of 40 "retiring" from waht many people considered to be an excellent job on the graduate engineering faculty of the University of Florida. Over a period of several years, and a heck of a lot of mistakes, I was able to rely on a pool of assets and continuing investments to step out as a semi-pro investor who could then spend my time creating investments (to creat money) and creating financial educational material (my passion).

Defore we can even talk about financial independence, we need a frame of reference to see how much investment return might be needed to support our investor who is now going to turn into a semi-pro investor. Suppose that this investor decides that they need $75,000/Year to "break even" with their current lifestyle. That is, they can support their current lifestyle with that amount of money coming in but yet they are not adding to their net worth. For sake of argument, let's say this produces $60,000 per yaer after tax. For you, you may need 2X this amount, or 1/2 this amount but that does not change the underlying concepts.

With their current $192,000 in working capital, can this investor "retire" and become semi-pro? Maybe but it could be a little risky. Since tax has already been paid on this working capital, the investor KNOWS that they can support over 3 years with NO OTHER INCOME! i.e, $192,000/$60,000 > 3 years. For many people, that is HUGE revelation that within 4 years, starting with $15,000, thay have created something that can lrt them be job free for 3 years. Not bad but still a little scary in my opinion if the goal is to chuck the job permanently.

To avoid depleting their original capital, the investor would need to produce $75,000/$192,000, or 39% per year returns. As we have shown, this is quite possible but would make for some sleepless nights. Suppose now that the investor decides that they should go through one more round of investing to further grow their capital base. They know that with another 2 years od strong investment returns behind them, they could really make it into the big time and be able to "retire" to the semi-pro status with complete confidence.

Using smart leverage (see previous articles (1) & (2), suppose now that the investor manages to produce a modest, 150% gain over the next two years, or $288,000. They accomplish this objective by making 2, diverse investments in condos that are located in completely different states. after long term, capital gains treatment, this produces $244,800 now giving the investor a working capital base of over $430,000!; All of this started from a investment of $15,000 only 6 years ago.

Ignoring the effect of inflation for simplicity purposes, this investor has now accumulated enough cash to support themselves, with zero addittional income, for about 7 years. Hower, it is extremely unlikely that for someone that has successfully navigated themselves to this point can produce at LEAST a 20% return on their working capital. Basically, they have now acquired the skill set, and the required capital, to be a semi-pro investor. At that return level, the investor now has all the income they need.

There is another effect that people often ignore. When the semi-pro investor leaves their current occupation, there is a ton of hours that can be applied to whatever they choose. It has been my observation that for people with working capital of less than 2 million dollars, it does take much time to generate their semi-pro investments. Invariably, I find that people have another activity that they always wanted to do., like starting a business, be an author, artist, fishing guide, or what ever that produces revenue as well. This further reduces income requirements.

Thursday, July 21, 2005

Florida Real Estate Exploding for 15+ More Years?

Florida Real Estate Exploding for 15+ More Years?
By Chris Anderson, PhD

YEEHAW!!!!!! The South will rise again! Can't you just imagine the Dukes of Hazard boys sitting on the hood of their car (the General Lee) grinning in front of a For Sale sign in their yard? Well, they should be smiling with the prices in the South, and especially in Florida. But will this Florida real estate trend continue? That is the $1000,000 question.

We hust recently taught a class at the Learning Annex in NYC about investing in Florida real estate. As I was preparing for this class, I was just constantly shocked by some of the facts that I was gathering.... and I live in Florida and have done so most of my life. So the question becomes "is this just an over blown Florida real estate bubble or is this something taht is likely to last?"

Let me give you an example of just how wild Florida real estate has become. Recently, somebody just made a purchase the LARGEST track of land that has been purchased in Florida since 1965, some crazy dude named Walt Disney purchased 30,000 acres in a relatively unknown place (at the time) called Orlando. At the time, the locals who sold their land went laughing all the way to the bank about this guy.

This recent Florida real estate purchase, however, was 28,000 acres at a price of $30,000/Acre. No big deal right? Wrong!!! This land was purchased around YEEHAW Junction, Florida! Ever head of it? Most people have not. Yeehaw Junction is off of the Florida Turnpike in Osceola County. This is one of those places that you could drive through 10 times and still not have noticed it.

If you are like most people, then you would have to assume that big groups are buying these large tracts of land with the intent of rapidly developing them and selling them during this crazy real estate market. Nothing could be further from the truth. What these groups know is that the population of Florida is expected to increase by 35,000 people, per month for the next 30 years. So month, after month, after month, you have people pouring into the state. So if you are one of the big Florida Real Estate groups with tons of money in your pockets these days, what would you do? Buy land in cash and sit on it for years --- also refered to as "land banking."

Now if you are familiar with the Florida real estate of yesteryaer, you would have to assume that most of this population growth is from fixed, low income, retirees that are coming into the state. Wrong again. Today, and in the foreseeable future, you actually have very wealthy individuals coming into the state, possibly for the long term retiremant. The difference is they have lots of money, are willing to spend it, and are accustomed to nice lifestyles.

Whenever there is money flowing, then you obviously create business opportunities and job growth. As a consequence, many locations in Florida are exploding within the 20 - 40 year old age group. With this kind of real world demand floating around, the opportunities are endless for savvy Florida real estate investors.

Of course, you can not just bluindly make investment choices, especially if you live outside of the state. Some areas have become investor dominated and could be a bit scary in the shorter time scale. Over the longer time scale however, the future looks very bright, especially in the area of land investments and affordable housing.

In the Learning Annex class in NYC, my suggestion to investors interested in Florida real estate is to either learn how they can use preconstruction investing to easily make investments in Florida or else move and get involved in more active styles. For preconstruction investing, the trick is to 1) find an emergind area poised to explode, 2) find a project within that area that is high demand and is in preconstruction, 3) ride the appreciation curve while you may or may not even own (yet) the property. People have made money by the boatload over the past fews years doing exactly that and "aw shucks, we only have another 15+ years to go before it runs out".

Now do you want the really good news? This is not limited to Florida real estate! In our group, we are making multible investments in many locales all being driven by the baby boomer shift and its far reaching impacts. In my opinion, if you want real estate investing to be a major factor in your financial future, learn what the baby boomers want and then buy in front of them.

BuyVacationCondo.com LANDDepo.com Florida Real Estate is Exploding

Monday, July 11, 2005

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Thursday, July 07, 2005

How to Start Investing for Financial Independence, Part 2

How to Start Investing for Financial Independence, Part 2
By Chris Anderson, PhD

Last week we started a mini-part series about how to go from beginning investor to being "financilly independent" in a steady and predictable way. Many, many people want to overly complicate this process so let's recap that discussion.

The bottom line steps that I suggested in the last week article (Click here for Article) was :
  1. Look for an opportunity that will return at least 150% in 2 yrs or less;
  2. Be mentally and finacially prepared if the investment does not work out;
  3. Have VERY good reasons why you don't think you will lose money.....You may not make as much as expected, but you would rather not lose money at this stage.
  4. Be patient. This single result should not either make or break you but it is crucial to a longer term plan.
I gave an example where a hypothetical person had gone through this process and ended up with a profit of $43,000 (before taxes) and $36,000 of after tax profit. When this profit was combined with their original investment, they now had around $55,000 of operating capital for step 2.

Before we get to step 2, let's take a step back. For a lot of people, if I told them that somebody made $43,000 on a quick investment, they would think these people had "struck it rich". Kind of like winning the lottery, right? NO! In the grand scheme of things, this investment will do very littleto impact their financial independence. That is, it will take discipline to now use these profits to go into the next investment, and then use those new profits to go into the 3rd investment, ect. So, in our opinion, the first investment was merely a stepping stone towards a much bigger objective.

In step 2, most savvy investors will now realize they have just been given some monopoly money, or money that was not originally theors, to work with. In the investment and trading world, this is referred to as the "markets money; i.e., money that you got from the market that you can now use to generate revenues above and beyond what was possible with your original investment. Quality traders can use this concept to produce huge % returns in a year while risking no more than 10% of their original portfolio.

So let's say the investor now decides to repeat the process and buy two preconstruction lots in a differant development. In the two years since the first investment was made, suppose now that property has escalated. In addition, the investor finds a good deal on two more lots and each is $250,000 to purchase.

Now, the investors visit their check list to see if this makes sinse:
  1. Look for an opportunity that will return at least 150% in 2 years ofr less --yes, they have reason to believe this will occur for their down payment amount;
  2. Be mentally and financially prepared if the investment does not work out --yes, they don't think it will happen but if they lose their entire 10% down payment, they are ok with this.
  3. Have VERY good reasons why you don't think you will lose money..... You may not make as much as expected but you would rather not lose money at this stage -- They have done their due diligence and feel strongly about the investment.
  4. Be patient. This single result should not either make or break you but it is crucial to a longer term plan-- they are not swinging for the fences but rather patiently using the previous market's money to increase their investment.
Well, like the other investment, suppose this one works out in their favor. In their two year holding period, the lots experienced a 35% increase in price. Not bad. They were hoping for more since they knew some places had that kind of increase in a few months but they are not complaining. After closing costs, the investor had about $55,000 invested and netted a total of $162,000 after expenses. Of course their silent partner, Uncle Sam, wanted their cut so now they are left with a $137,700 in profits and $192,700 in working capital. Not too bad after only 4 years.

Now let's ask the question are they finacilly free? Well, I doubt it. The investor could probably now survive for 2-3 years on the nest egg but only if they did not reinvest it. However, if the family and friends find out about this gain, then they will think the investor is now "rich" and living like the Vanderbilts..... For anybody that has made it to Step 2, you know they are far from rich because now they want to invest to go to Step 3 and this will likely consume most of thir money. Frequently you will find people in the $0.5 - $2Miillion dollar net worth in this category where they are doing great on paper but they don't have ant more "extra" money to spend than they did a few years ago. After Step 3-4 however, this can change dramatically.

Before we conclude this week's article, let's talk about a very common and deadly mistake. In the language of Texas Hold'em poker, it is the ALL IN mentality. Frequently, after a first success, people now feel bulletproof and decide they want this process to go faster. they leverage everything they have and take on as much risk as the banks will allow them. If things work out for them, they explode their wealth with that step. However, if something slips up, they are in trouble.

Most people believe nothing like that can happen to them they are too smart. I mean everybody knows that real estate does not go down, Right? I know a gentlemen who is extremely smart, extremely business savvy, and grew his net worth to well over a BILLION dollars. Within a few yaers of that mark, his net worth was NEGATIVE and had to declare bankruptcy because of real estate. The process of building wealth in a controlled fashion over 6-10 years is so straight forward that I cannot see taking those kind of risks to make it happen in a much shorter time frame.



Wednesday, July 06, 2005

Economists say Boom Continues


Economists say Boom Continues

Annual report: "Double-digit explosive is on the way."

March 2, 2005
By Terry Calhoun
News Editor

Every year UNC-Wilmington economist Claude Farrell and Woody Hall come to Southport and forcast booming growth for the year ahead.
Every year, thay are right.

Tuesday morning, the duo told area business and civic leaders assembled under the auspices of the Brunswick Community College Small Business Center that retail sales grew in the county by 10.5 percent, pushing their way back over the $1,billion mark after a breif sales slump in 2002.

As far as the overall economy goes - what the pair call the Local GDP (Gross Domestic Product) - the first half of 2004 was the strongest recorded since they began tracking the local economy in 1893.

In the near term, Farrell and Hall predict the trend to continue if the area stays relatively storm-free. we expect Brunswick and Pender counties to exceed the near-term forcast for the region.

For the region, which includes relatively lagging New Hanover County, the economist predict 9.5 percent overall growth in 2005. In Brunswick County, they expect double-digit growth, and expect double-digit growth to continue over the long term, at least for ten years.

"Believe me it's on the way. Now is the time to get on board and make a lot of money in the future," Farrell told the heavily business-oriented audience at the event cosponsored by the Southport-oak Island Area Chamber of Commerce. He promised new multimillionares would be created amoung those who get in before land values further escalate.

To no one's surprise, Farrell said the single most imoportant factor fueling economic growth was population growth.

He reported Brunswick County's July, 2004, population at 83,787, up from 73,143 in Census 2000.

"Our long-run forcasts of local GDP rely primarily on expected population growth. Our major economic expansions here in the 1980's and even moreso in the 1990s were driven over time by surges in population growth," Farrell said. He said that growth was largely driven by the region's linkage to the upstate and beyond as I-40 was completed.

Since the mid-1980s the Wilmington area economy growth rate tripled the national average, he said.

Farrell and Hall claim their year-to-year forcasts issued since 1985 have been accurate within one standard deviation 98.44 percent of the time.

"A plain-words example of what this means is that if we forecasted 3.5 percent growth that the actual growth was somewhere between three and four percent," said Farrell.

Their biggest variance came in 2001 when they understandably failed to predict the post-September 11 recession.

Variables which are plugged into the economic model to produce forecasts include retail sales, employment and unemployment rates, building permits and airport traffic.

"Our long-run forecast is for the local economy, at a minimum, to double in size over the next ten years. W e expect the Brubswick and Pender county economies to grow even more rapidly over that time period with each more than tripling in size."

Farrell recalled that population in the three-county area grew by 37 percent from 1990 to 2000.

Pender and Brunswick counties will be the fifth and sixth fastest-growing counties in the state with population growth rates in excess of 28 percent, wwhile New Hanover County's population is forcast to grow 23 percent, in each case by 2010.

Why growth is coming so fast
"What will be the primary catalyst for this growth?" posed ?Farrell.

"The southern part of Hanover County will continue to expand outward from the Monkey Junction area toward Carolina Beach. Brunswick County is expanding rapidly across the river from New Hanover County and along the beach communities and surrounding areas," he said.

Farrell admitted he is part of the migration, saying he had lived in both New Hanover and Pender Counties and was now looking for a home in Brunswick County.

"Growth is being partially fueled by a readily available county water system in many areas," he said. "This has allowed development to occur where it would otherwise not have been possible."

Who are the newcomers?
But Farrell said supply of housing would be meaningless without demand. So, where are the people moving from who are moving to Brunswick County?

"First are those households living in New Hanover County who desire a less crowed and less hectic lifestyle," he said. "The second source is coming from retirees moving to the area to enjoy the many golf courses and family-oriented beaches found in Brunswick County."

Farrell pointed out that "really nice smaller homes" 15 minutes away from the beaches and greens were still available in the $150,000 range.

"You won't recognize Leland in ten years," he said.

But other housing alternatives available.

"You can still get right on the beach or golf course, he added. There's something housing-wise for everybody."

"Commercial building will absolutely blow through the roof," said Farrell.

Farrell said Pender County would see even faster growth as the bypass from Porter's Neck to Brunswick County develops.

"In reality, the bypass needs to only allow those in Southern Pender and New Hanover to access I-40 and Market Street to alleviate the current traffic quagmire at Ogden. This part should be done by the end of 2005 or mid-2006 at the latest.

Only the lack of water lines prevents explosive growth in Pender County now, said Farrell.

"Brunswick County, in contrast, already has undeveloped land with water available. The completion of the U.S. Highway 17 bypass should have an explosive impact and, in fact, development is already occuring in anticipation of the completion of it," Farrell said.

Farrell said he is "very confident" that his forcast is correct after 25 years of living in the region and studying its economic trends.

"The impact the bypass is having and will have on Pender and Brunswick counties cannot be overstated," he said. "Double-digit explosive growth is on the way. Get ready for a lengthy and continious economic ride up."



Monday, July 04, 2005

Brunswick County, NC is Red Hot


Red Hot Real Estate rides a rising wave

Boomers look to area, fueling "phenomenal" sales growth

Article published April 26, 2005 by Bonnie Eksten

Is real estate hot in Southeastern North Carolina? you could say

Jim Wallace, president of Intercoastal Realty in Wilmington, said his company's business is up 99 percent this quarter compared with first quarter 2004.

"And, last year was a good year," Mr. Wallace said.

The natural picture is writ large in Southeastern North Carolina. Brunwisk and Hanover counties are experiencing no letup in housing demand. According to N.C. Association of Realtors, housing sales were up 23 percent in Brunswick County in March.

New Hanover County saw even more impressive 36 percent gain.

Paul Martienz, a broker with Laney Real Estate, said he believes many people shopping for homes are investing in the housing market because the instability of the stock market "scared them off"

Beach communities, in particular, he said, is seeing phonomenal growth.

Property on Kure Beach has risen as much as 100 percent in the past year, Mr. Martinez said.

Mr. Wallace, just back from a meeting with brokers from other parts of the United States, said the surge in housing sales in coastal areas is happening from Spocane, Wash.,to Portland, Maine. He said that the housing market in Naples, Fla., is robust - in spite of being hit repeatly by huricanes last year.

Boomers, the first of who turn 60 next year, are gravitating toward the coast, Mr. Wallace said. They want to get in on the market before they retire.

Wilmington is now on the map. It's no longer a secret that is a really good place to live, he said.

And that has been reflected in the run-up in housing sales and prices in this area. Brunswick County's March house sales totaled $70 million, up 40 percent over the same month last year. Average price was $284,476.

New Hanover County (numbers also include part of Pender County) also gained bragging rights. March house sales totaled $185.5 million, an impressive 56 percent gain over March, 2004 numbers. Average price was $232,853.

Mr. Wallace said it is unusual for sellers to get multible offers. A finite amount of beach and waterfront property helps fuel the market.

"When it's gone it's gone, Mr. Wallace said.

He expects the market will level off eventually, but no one can say definitively when that will happen.

George Laney, president of Laney Real Estate and president of the Willington Regional Association of Realtors, said growth in this area is playing catch-up after the hurricane years in the late 1990's when the real estate market was fairly level.

Brunswick real estate, he said is growing so fast because parts of the county are only minutes from downtown Wilmington.

"How many places in Wilmington can you say you're only five minutes from downtown, He asked.

Brunswick County, he said is "right accross the bridge." When PPD moves it's coporate offices downtown, workers might find Brunswick attractive - taxes are lower and the commute to work may be shorter.

Living five minutes from work is a great selling point, Mr. Laney said. Both Mr. Laney and Mr. Wallace said the real estate market is not experiencing a bubble.

"People are putting more money down on homes and their debt service is historically low," Mr, Laney said.

Mr. Wallace said this is the type of market that makes you "pinch yourself and think "this is phenomental growth." It's pretty incredible."