Economists say Boom Continues
Annual report: "Double-digit explosive is on the way."
March 2, 2005
By Terry Calhoun
News Editor
By Terry Calhoun
News Editor
Every year UNC-Wilmington economist Claude Farrell and Woody Hall come to Southport and forcast booming growth for the year ahead.
Every year, thay are right.
Tuesday morning, the duo told area business and civic leaders assembled under the auspices of the Brunswick Community College Small Business Center that retail sales grew in the county by 10.5 percent, pushing their way back over the $1,billion mark after a breif sales slump in 2002.
As far as the overall economy goes - what the pair call the Local GDP (Gross Domestic Product) - the first half of 2004 was the strongest recorded since they began tracking the local economy in 1893.
In the near term, Farrell and Hall predict the trend to continue if the area stays relatively storm-free. we expect Brunswick and Pender counties to exceed the near-term forcast for the region.
For the region, which includes relatively lagging New Hanover County, the economist predict 9.5 percent overall growth in 2005. In Brunswick County, they expect double-digit growth, and expect double-digit growth to continue over the long term, at least for ten years.
"Believe me it's on the way. Now is the time to get on board and make a lot of money in the future," Farrell told the heavily business-oriented audience at the event cosponsored by the Southport-oak Island Area Chamber of Commerce. He promised new multimillionares would be created amoung those who get in before land values further escalate.
To no one's surprise, Farrell said the single most imoportant factor fueling economic growth was population growth.
He reported Brunswick County's July, 2004, population at 83,787, up from 73,143 in Census 2000.
"Our long-run forcasts of local GDP rely primarily on expected population growth. Our major economic expansions here in the 1980's and even moreso in the 1990s were driven over time by surges in population growth," Farrell said. He said that growth was largely driven by the region's linkage to the upstate and beyond as I-40 was completed.
Since the mid-1980s the Wilmington area economy growth rate tripled the national average, he said.
Farrell and Hall claim their year-to-year forcasts issued since 1985 have been accurate within one standard deviation 98.44 percent of the time.
"A plain-words example of what this means is that if we forecasted 3.5 percent growth that the actual growth was somewhere between three and four percent," said Farrell.
Their biggest variance came in 2001 when they understandably failed to predict the post-September 11 recession.
Variables which are plugged into the economic model to produce forecasts include retail sales, employment and unemployment rates, building permits and airport traffic.
"Our long-run forecast is for the local economy, at a minimum, to double in size over the next ten years. W e expect the Brubswick and Pender county economies to grow even more rapidly over that time period with each more than tripling in size."
Farrell recalled that population in the three-county area grew by 37 percent from 1990 to 2000.
Pender and Brunswick counties will be the fifth and sixth fastest-growing counties in the state with population growth rates in excess of 28 percent, wwhile New Hanover County's population is forcast to grow 23 percent, in each case by 2010.
Why growth is coming so fast
"What will be the primary catalyst for this growth?" posed ?Farrell.
"The southern part of Hanover County will continue to expand outward from the Monkey Junction area toward Carolina Beach. Brunswick County is expanding rapidly across the river from New Hanover County and along the beach communities and surrounding areas," he said.
Farrell admitted he is part of the migration, saying he had lived in both New Hanover and Pender Counties and was now looking for a home in Brunswick County.
"Growth is being partially fueled by a readily available county water system in many areas," he said. "This has allowed development to occur where it would otherwise not have been possible."
Who are the newcomers?
But Farrell said supply of housing would be meaningless without demand. So, where are the people moving from who are moving to Brunswick County?
"First are those households living in New Hanover County who desire a less crowed and less hectic lifestyle," he said. "The second source is coming from retirees moving to the area to enjoy the many golf courses and family-oriented beaches found in Brunswick County."
Farrell pointed out that "really nice smaller homes" 15 minutes away from the beaches and greens were still available in the $150,000 range.
"You won't recognize Leland in ten years," he said.
But other housing alternatives available.
"You can still get right on the beach or golf course, he added. There's something housing-wise for everybody."
"Commercial building will absolutely blow through the roof," said Farrell.
Farrell said Pender County would see even faster growth as the bypass from Porter's Neck to Brunswick County develops.
"In reality, the bypass needs to only allow those in Southern Pender and New Hanover to access I-40 and Market Street to alleviate the current traffic quagmire at Ogden. This part should be done by the end of 2005 or mid-2006 at the latest.
Only the lack of water lines prevents explosive growth in Pender County now, said Farrell.
"Brunswick County, in contrast, already has undeveloped land with water available. The completion of the U.S. Highway 17 bypass should have an explosive impact and, in fact, development is already occuring in anticipation of the completion of it," Farrell said.
Farrell said he is "very confident" that his forcast is correct after 25 years of living in the region and studying its economic trends.
"The impact the bypass is having and will have on Pender and Brunswick counties cannot be overstated," he said. "Double-digit explosive growth is on the way. Get ready for a lengthy and continious economic ride up."
Every year, thay are right.
Tuesday morning, the duo told area business and civic leaders assembled under the auspices of the Brunswick Community College Small Business Center that retail sales grew in the county by 10.5 percent, pushing their way back over the $1,billion mark after a breif sales slump in 2002.
As far as the overall economy goes - what the pair call the Local GDP (Gross Domestic Product) - the first half of 2004 was the strongest recorded since they began tracking the local economy in 1893.
In the near term, Farrell and Hall predict the trend to continue if the area stays relatively storm-free. we expect Brunswick and Pender counties to exceed the near-term forcast for the region.
For the region, which includes relatively lagging New Hanover County, the economist predict 9.5 percent overall growth in 2005. In Brunswick County, they expect double-digit growth, and expect double-digit growth to continue over the long term, at least for ten years.
"Believe me it's on the way. Now is the time to get on board and make a lot of money in the future," Farrell told the heavily business-oriented audience at the event cosponsored by the Southport-oak Island Area Chamber of Commerce. He promised new multimillionares would be created amoung those who get in before land values further escalate.
To no one's surprise, Farrell said the single most imoportant factor fueling economic growth was population growth.
He reported Brunswick County's July, 2004, population at 83,787, up from 73,143 in Census 2000.
"Our long-run forcasts of local GDP rely primarily on expected population growth. Our major economic expansions here in the 1980's and even moreso in the 1990s were driven over time by surges in population growth," Farrell said. He said that growth was largely driven by the region's linkage to the upstate and beyond as I-40 was completed.
Since the mid-1980s the Wilmington area economy growth rate tripled the national average, he said.
Farrell and Hall claim their year-to-year forcasts issued since 1985 have been accurate within one standard deviation 98.44 percent of the time.
"A plain-words example of what this means is that if we forecasted 3.5 percent growth that the actual growth was somewhere between three and four percent," said Farrell.
Their biggest variance came in 2001 when they understandably failed to predict the post-September 11 recession.
Variables which are plugged into the economic model to produce forecasts include retail sales, employment and unemployment rates, building permits and airport traffic.
"Our long-run forecast is for the local economy, at a minimum, to double in size over the next ten years. W e expect the Brubswick and Pender county economies to grow even more rapidly over that time period with each more than tripling in size."
Farrell recalled that population in the three-county area grew by 37 percent from 1990 to 2000.
Pender and Brunswick counties will be the fifth and sixth fastest-growing counties in the state with population growth rates in excess of 28 percent, wwhile New Hanover County's population is forcast to grow 23 percent, in each case by 2010.
Why growth is coming so fast
"What will be the primary catalyst for this growth?" posed ?Farrell.
"The southern part of Hanover County will continue to expand outward from the Monkey Junction area toward Carolina Beach. Brunswick County is expanding rapidly across the river from New Hanover County and along the beach communities and surrounding areas," he said.
Farrell admitted he is part of the migration, saying he had lived in both New Hanover and Pender Counties and was now looking for a home in Brunswick County.
"Growth is being partially fueled by a readily available county water system in many areas," he said. "This has allowed development to occur where it would otherwise not have been possible."
Who are the newcomers?
But Farrell said supply of housing would be meaningless without demand. So, where are the people moving from who are moving to Brunswick County?
"First are those households living in New Hanover County who desire a less crowed and less hectic lifestyle," he said. "The second source is coming from retirees moving to the area to enjoy the many golf courses and family-oriented beaches found in Brunswick County."
Farrell pointed out that "really nice smaller homes" 15 minutes away from the beaches and greens were still available in the $150,000 range.
"You won't recognize Leland in ten years," he said.
But other housing alternatives available.
"You can still get right on the beach or golf course, he added. There's something housing-wise for everybody."
"Commercial building will absolutely blow through the roof," said Farrell.
Farrell said Pender County would see even faster growth as the bypass from Porter's Neck to Brunswick County develops.
"In reality, the bypass needs to only allow those in Southern Pender and New Hanover to access I-40 and Market Street to alleviate the current traffic quagmire at Ogden. This part should be done by the end of 2005 or mid-2006 at the latest.
Only the lack of water lines prevents explosive growth in Pender County now, said Farrell.
"Brunswick County, in contrast, already has undeveloped land with water available. The completion of the U.S. Highway 17 bypass should have an explosive impact and, in fact, development is already occuring in anticipation of the completion of it," Farrell said.
Farrell said he is "very confident" that his forcast is correct after 25 years of living in the region and studying its economic trends.
"The impact the bypass is having and will have on Pender and Brunswick counties cannot be overstated," he said. "Double-digit explosive growth is on the way. Get ready for a lengthy and continious economic ride up."
